Greece has come to the end of its program engagement with the IMF. This loss in asset value was exacerbated by bank borrowers that simply were unable to service their loans and strategic defaulters that took advantage of debtor protection amid an ineffective judicial system to stop servicing loans that they were actually capable of repaying. Greece will need to continue to protect social and investment spending working within the high surplus targets agreed between Greece and european institutions. While much has been achieved, Greece faces very significant crisis legacies. We expect the full benefits of existing reforms to materialize gradually, but sustained reform efforts, including beyond those in the pipeline, will be needed for Greece to attract more investment, create more quality jobs, and afford better social protection. Greece will need to simultaneously achieve high GDP growth and run large primary fiscal surpluses for many years to keep public debt on a downward trajectory. Greece needs to address these legacies while also achieving sustainable higher growth and remaining competitive in the euro area.
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